What is Yolomarkets?

YOLO Markets is a prediction market for subjective questions. We measure and trade on consensus about opinions that have no objective answer.

The Problem with Current Prediction Markets

Prediction markets work great for objective outcomes:

  • "Will Bitcoin hit $100K?" → Check the price

  • "Who wins the election?" → Check the results

Reality provides a definitive answer. Markets aggregate information and converge on accurate probabilities.

But most important crypto questions are subjective:

  • Is Solana better than Ethereum?

  • Is this founder credible?

  • Is this narrative sustainable?

These questions have no definitive answer. They have a distribution of opinions that needs to be measured.

Why Current Methods Fail

Twitter/CT: Bots and loud voices dominate. No way to separate signal from noise.

Polls: Zero credibility. Anyone can vote without stake or verification.

DAO Voting: Limited to token holders. Designed for governance, not sentiment measurement.

Sentiment Tools: Track discussion volume but not actual belief. Kaito tells you what's trending, not what people think is true.

The gap: No infrastructure exists to measure what informed participants actually believe with enough rigor that the measurement matters.

Yolomarkets is an opinion-powered prediction market.

It has two tightly coupled components:

  1. CTF markets for traders Example: “What percentage of people think Polymarket is better than Kalshi?” Traders bet on buckets like 0–10%, 11–20%, … 91–100%. Only one bucket settles in the money.

  2. Opinion markets for humans Example: “Which one do you choose, Polymarket or Kalshi?” Whitelisted humans submit an opinion on the chain. Their answers are hidden until resolution time. After the opinion window closes, the on-chain count decides the percentage. That percentage picks the winning CTF bucket, and the opinion givers who were on the correct side earn a share of market fees.

Yolomarkets is a resolution layer that replaces a traditional oracle like UMA with a transparent, human powered, cryptographically hidden opinion process.

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