# What is Yolomarkets?

YOLO Markets is a prediction market for subjective questions. We measure and trade on consensus about opinions that have no objective answer.

#### The Problem with Current Prediction Markets

Prediction markets work great for objective outcomes:

* **"Will Bitcoin hit $100K?"** → Check the price
* **"Who wins the election?"** → Check the results

Reality provides a definitive answer. Markets aggregate information and converge on accurate probabilities.

But most important crypto questions are subjective:

* Is Solana better than Ethereum?
* Is this founder credible?
* Is this narrative sustainable?

These questions have no definitive answer. They have a **distribution of opinions** that needs to be measured.

#### Why Current Methods Fail

**Twitter/CT:** Bots and loud voices dominate. No way to separate signal from noise.

**Polls:** Zero credibility. Anyone can vote without stake or verification.

**DAO Voting:** Limited to token holders. Designed for governance, not sentiment measurement.

**Sentiment Tools:** Track discussion volume but not actual belief. Kaito tells you what's trending, not what people think is true.

The gap: **No infrastructure exists to measure what informed participants actually believe with enough rigor that the measurement matters.**

Yolomarkets is an opinion-powered prediction market.

It has two tightly coupled components:

1. **CTF markets for traders**\
   Example:\
   \&#xNAN;*“What percentage of people think Polymarket is better than Kalshi?”*\
   Traders bet on buckets like `0–10%`, `11–20%`, … `91–100%`. Only one bucket settles in the money.
2. **Opinion markets for humans**\
   Example:\
   \&#xNAN;*“Which one do you choose, Polymarket or Kalshi?”*\
   Whitelisted humans submit an opinion on the chain. Their answers are hidden until resolution time.\
   After the opinion window closes, the on-chain count decides the percentage. That percentage picks the winning CTF bucket, and the opinion givers who were on the correct side earn a share of market fees.

Yolomarkets is a resolution layer that replaces a traditional oracle like UMA with a transparent, human powered, cryptographically hidden opinion process. 


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